Interesting times ahead ...

This story that broke on Bloomberg yesterday is what I had hoped not to hear for at least another couple of months. The word "contagion" is generally not used lightly - read the story here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-30/calm-broken-in-global-markets-amid-concern-of-emerging-contagion.html

Today everywhere is down except for American Markets - Source Bloomberg SAST 12:00  on
31 Jan 2014

Add to that that Europe markets seem a bit jittery.

And then the news that Emerging Markets lost $ 10 billion in the past week - which would explain why so many emerging currencies around the world tanked so dramatically in the last week or 2.  Also see which Emerging Economies are appearing most at risk ... now add to that the current situation in these countries:

• Brazil - construction strikes and anger over the amount of money spent on World Cup 2014
• South Africa - strikes in mining sector , service delivery protests  with a national election to be held within a few months
• Ukraine - serious political unrest, Prime minister resigning - see some of the tell tale photos here
• India, South Africa and Turkey increasing interest rates this week
• Thai stocks are reaching their most volatile levels since 2006 , and Thai political protests
• Problems in China

Ukraine - Photo courtesy of BBC News

Seems like we might be in for a bit of a bumpy ride ? 

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When will the Tech Bubble Pop ?

Business Insider feels rather strongly about the upsurge in Tech start-ups, apps and the likes

Evidence of a new Tech Bubble - by Jim Edwards

The following Graph is from Jim Edward's Story, and tells a pretty interesting story in itself

But he is not the only one saying this - I have also found this rather interesting infographic from Udemy (in case it doesn't load properly look here)

And Forbes' Jesse Columbo also says Bubble (read more here)

And here's an article from the Times' Curious Capitalist - Rana Foroohar  (read more here) 

But the Wall Street Journal says keep on dreaming - nothing to see, no bubble here

So who do we believe ?


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About

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That sums it up nicely :)

I also have another blog - Digitaltoybox

How far away is the bubble? Does 2016 work for you ?

Now here's an interesting angle:

The bubble is still some way off, and the market is bound to increase between now and then ... but first it will have to take a teensy dip in the 3rd quarter of this year. Why?

Because:

This year is apparently a presidential mid-term year. "Since 1833, the average peak-to-trough fall in US stocks during a midterm year was -12.76%" - source quoted below

Read more about The coming market meltup and 2016 recession by Lance Roberts (STA Wealth)

China's Empty Cities - is this a property bubble ?

A fascinating look at the many ghost cities being built across China 

DotCom Bubble

The DotCom (dot.com / dot-com) bubble happened when I was a young professional, half way around the world from Silicon Valley.

Every so often (if you were tapped into the international news) you would hear about more young people (my age then, give or take a few years) launching successful enterprises, listing on the stock exchange, and living the high life. And to be honest, some of the business ideas were not all that brilliant (read about some of the businesses that folded http://www.cnet.com/1990-11136_1-6278387-1.html).

This apparent massive wealth building exercise made a huge impression on me - here was I working pretty hard for a monthly salary and it seemed like they were coining it, by virtue of just being there.

And then the DotCom bubble popped. As easy as it came, the money left again. In the US businesses crashed, Silicon Valley execs lost their cash cows and had to give back their Porches and Ferraris and mansions. Many average investors lost their jobs and livelihood and investments.

But that's not all. The fall out was in fact so huge, it hit us half-way around the world - Distance between Silicon Valley and Johannesburg 16 963 km / 10 540 miles (as the crow flies).  So how did it hit us, you wonder?

• Well, the DotCom fallout came with nice big teeth and bit a big chunk out of my still pitiful tiny little pension fund. But wait, there's more... 
• As if gobbling up a chunk of my hard earned savings wasn't good enough, it also caused our local interest rates to go up for months afterwards. Even though the increases were not as harsh as during the Asia Currency Crisis,  it is still not nice if you are a first time bond holder already eating beans on toast to afford your own house.

You can read about the DotCom Bubble here:

Bubble Spotting - The DotCom bubble (NASDAQ crash Mar 2000) from Benjamin Van As

Feel free to comment below, like or share, tweet if you must. Or add me to your circles Google+

History of bitcoin

This is a website dedicated to the history of bitcoin - drawing a very nifty time line of each and every major development

Have a look at it here: http://historyofbitcoin.org/

Singapore Bubble ?

Is Singapore heading for an economic melt-down like Iceland not so long ago ?

I was in Singapore less than 2 years ago. Its a really impressive city. Everything is modern, neat and tidy and runs like clock work. From the carpeted airport right down to the city streets and markets. Every creature comfort you can think of.

(Source: Pinterest Asia Expat Guides)

There are a (disproportionate?) noticeable high number of luxury vehicles on the streets. Various luxury hotels.  ( I stayed in one of these hotels (which shall remain anonymous) close to the Long Bar - I thought the service was pathetic .. but that is a story for a different day)

Behind this modern facade all might not not be well. Some experts think that an economic bubble might may be lurking in the background. +Jesse Colombo, a Forbes journalist and expert on bubbles gives his opinion - read here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/01/13/why-singapores-economy-is-heading-for-an-iceland-style-meltdown/

What do you think ?

The East Asian Currency and Debt Bubble

The next Bubble was the first to catch my attention growing up. This happened when I started out with my professional career

I can specifically remember a tv news report that the East Asian economies were growing at an enormous rate... So much so that students opened credit card accounts and used that to speculate with shares on the stock exchange. Due to rapid growth they could flip the shares before they had to pay the debt. I was tremendously impressed.

The the bubble burst and hit us over the couple of months.

This bubble is an excellent example of the massive damage that can be done with reckless speculation in the financial markets (specifically forex trading), and also illustrates the devastating impact of the power and damage that can happen once contagion occurred

Bubble Spotting - The East Asia Currency and Debt crisis of 1997 from Benjamin Van As

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Wall Street Crash of 1929

Yes, the Wall Street Crash of 1929 was a bubble.

Read for yourself:

Bubble Spotting - The Great Wall Street Crash of 1929 from Benjamin Van As

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British Railway Mania

But wait, there's more ...

In the 1800s there was a railway building craze sweeping through Britain. Just about every Tom, Dick and Harry opened their own railway company - resulting in the British Railway Bubble

You can read about it here - British Railway Mania

Bubble Spotting - British Railways Mania from Benjamin Van As

Comments or feedback welcome Google+

Market bubbles

For just about as long as I can remember, I have been interested in financial markets and investments.

So as part of my own investor education, I have decided to do a little research into market bubbles. What causes them, where do they come from, what happens, etc.

I have created a series of presentations on Market & Bubbles which I would like to share with anybody who may be interested.

Bubble Spotting - Dutch Tulip Mania from Benjamin van As

From time to time I will post relevant or interesting information on market bubbles and new developments.

Comments or feedback welcome

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